Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints23
- Kyle FilipowskiAssists6
- John CollinsRebounds10
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints24
- Chris PaulAssists9
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–110
- Q40.0Devin Vassell makes 30-foot three point shot111–110
- Q43.2Collin Sexton makes free throw 2 of 2111–107
- Q43.2Collin Sexton makes free throw 1 of 2110–107
- Q43.2Devin Vassell personal take foul109–107
- Q45.0Julian Champagnie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)109–107
- Q48.2Jordan Clarkson makes free throw 2 of 2109–104
- Q48.2Chris Paul enters the game for Stephon Castle108–104
- Q48.2Jordan Clarkson makes free throw 1 of 2108–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:10Jordan Clarkson makes 25-foot three pointerUTAH 99 – 95 SA · UTAH 51% → 71% +20UTAH 51% → 71%+20 pts
- Q41:03Stephon Castle makes 4-foot dunk (Keldon Johnson assists)UTAH 102 – 101 SA · SA 16% → 39% +23SA 16% → 39%+23 pts
- Q442.0Collin Sexton makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jordan Clarkson assists)UTAH 105 – 101 SA · UTAH 65% → 95% +31UTAH 65% → 95%+31 pts
- Q431.1Keldon Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)UTAH 105 – 104 SA · SA 3% → 33% +30SA 3% → 33%+30 pts
- Q411.1Jordan Clarkson makes free throw 1 of 3UTAH 106 – 104 SA · UTAH 79% → 95% +16UTAH 79% → 95%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SA -6.5
- ML UTAH +205 / SA -250
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5.5
- SA 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- SA: Elo 71.3%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- SA -218
- UTAH +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 107.5 – 114.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1373 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −3 | +36 | UTAH: Usual rotation · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +158 Elo | SA 71.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 69.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30104.3 | Points scored | 105.929th of 30 |
| 26th of 30120.0 | Points allowed | 108.14th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−15.8 | Margin | −2.217th of 30 |
| 30th of 30101.4 | Offense rating | 107.823rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 110.112th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.7 | Pace | 98.327th of 30 |
| 21st of 301–3 | Road vs home | 3–17th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–5 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | — | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–2 SA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.