Washington Wizards at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jonas ValanciunasPoints18
- Jordan PooleAssists5
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds8
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints26
- Jalen BrunsonAssists11
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–134
- Q420.1Jared Butler makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot106–134
- Q436.2Anthony Gill defensive rebound104–134
- Q439.1Tyler Kolek misses 22-foot three point shot104–134
- Q41:00Jacob Toppin defensive rebound104–134
- Q41:02Marvin Bagley III misses driving layup104–134
- Q41:11Ariel Hukporti lost ball turnover (Marvin Bagley III steals)104–134
- Q41:22Pacome Dadiet defensive rebound104–134
- Q41:24Anthony Gill misses 5-foot two point shot104–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:18Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)WSH 7 – 7 NY · NY 82% → 86% +4NY 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q19:45Kyle Kuzma makes 23-foot three point jumper (Carlton Carrington assists)WSH 12 – 7 NY · WSH 17% → 21% +4WSH 17% → 21%+4 pts
- Q18:56Mikal Bridges makes driving layup (Josh Hart assists)WSH 12 – 9 NY · NY 79% → 82% +3NY 79% → 82%+3 pts
- Q18:10Karl-Anthony Towns makes 2-foot two point shotWSH 12 – 11 NY · NY 81% → 84% +3NY 81% → 84%+3 pts
- Q16:25Josh Hart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)WSH 14 – 20 NY · NY 88% → 91% +3NY 88% → 91%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- NY -14.5
- ML WSH +600 / NY -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -10.5
- NY 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- NY: Elo 84.0%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -636
- WSH +636 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 109.5 – 124.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1328 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | NY and WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −1 | +26 | WSH: Usual rotation · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +288 Elo | NY 84.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 87.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 87.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 86.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.3 | Points scored | 115.510th of 30 |
| 30th of 30123.9 | Points allowed | 111.512th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−13.7 | Margin | +4.08th of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.2 | Offense rating | 118.53rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30117.2 | Defense rating | 114.423rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.6 | Pace | 97.530th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301–5 | Road vs home | 4–211th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–9 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 3–9 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–3 NY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.