Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints43
- Dennis SchroderAssists8
- Ziaire WilliamsRebounds8
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints37
- Josh HartAssists9
- Josh HartRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–124
- Q40.0Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound122–124
- Q40.1Mikal Bridges blocks Dennis Schroder 's 2-foot driving layup122–124
- Q46.0Jalen Brunson makes 22-foot three point jumper122–124
- Q411.1Knicks Full timeout122–121
- Q412.0Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)122–121
- Q419.1Cameron Johnson offensive rebound119–121
- Q421.1Dennis Schroder misses driving layup119–121
- Q441.1Ziaire Williams defensive rebound119–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:53Cameron Johnson makes driving layup (Dennis Schroder assists)BKN 115 – 118 NY · BKN 7% → 18% +10BKN 7% → 18%+10 pts
- Q41:43Jalen Brunson makes 12-foot driving floating jump shotBKN 115 – 120 NY · NY 83% → 93% +10NY 83% → 93%+10 pts
- Q41:03Dennis Schroder makes free throw 2 of 2BKN 119 – 121 NY · BKN 12% → 21% +9BKN 12% → 21%+9 pts
- Q412.0Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)BKN 122 – 121 NY · BKN 5% → 78% +73BKN 5% → 78%+73 pts
- Q46.0Jalen Brunson makes 22-foot three point jumperBKN 122 – 124 NY · NY 13% → 99% +86NY 13% → 99%+86 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -8.5
- ML BKN +275 / NY -350
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -5.5
- NY 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- NY: Elo 70.4%, market 74.5%
- Fair odds
- NY -292
- BKN +292 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 103.0 – 111.5 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −54 | −23 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Missing Karl-Anthony Towns −48 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +151 Elo | NY 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 78.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 77.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 74.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.1 | Points scored | 114.911th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 111.312th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.8 | Margin | +3.69th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 117.54th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.3 | Defense rating | 113.822nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.0 | Pace | 97.730th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 17th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 2–216th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−23 Elo- Karl-Anthony Towns left knee contusion−48 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–3 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 7–2 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–6 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 0–4 NY in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.