Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints22
- Ben SimmonsAssists8
- Jalen WilsonRebounds6
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints26
- Jalen BrunsonAssists10
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–114
- Q412.1Jericho Sims defensive rebound104–114
- Q414.0Yongxi Cui misses two point shot104–114
- Q439.1Jalen Brunson out of bounds bad pass turnover104–114
- Q41:02Tyrese Martin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Keon Johnson assists)104–114
- Q41:16Tyrese Martin defensive rebound101–114
- Q41:17Jalen Brunson misses free throw 2 of 2101–114
- Q41:17Keon Johnson enters the game for Cameron Johnson101–114
- Q41:17Jalen Wilson enters the game for Dennis Schroder101–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:45Noah Clowney makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trendon Watford assists)BKN 24 – 20 NY · BKN 24% → 30% +6BKN 24% → 30%+6 pts
- Q12:10Noah Clowney makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)BKN 27 – 21 NY · BKN 28% → 35% +6BKN 28% → 35%+6 pts
- Q132.1Cameron Payne makes 26-foot three pointerBKN 29 – 30 NY · NY 73% → 78% +6NY 73% → 78%+6 pts
- Q220.1Jalen Wilson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 57 – 60 NY · BKN 15% → 21% +6BKN 15% → 21%+6 pts
- Q310:36Dennis Schroder makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ben Simmons assists)BKN 62 – 64 NY · BKN 17% → 23% +6BKN 17% → 23%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- NY -10.5
- ML BKN +375 / NY -500
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -7
- NY 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- NY: Elo 75.4%, market 79.8%
- Fair odds
- NY -396
- BKN +396 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 105.5 – 116.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −44 | +26 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +195 Elo | NY 75.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 80.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 80.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 79.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30111.9 | Points scored | 115.710th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.7 | Points allowed | 112.214th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.8 | Margin | +3.59th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 118.03rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 114.523rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.1 | Pace | 98.029th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 20th of 302–5 | Road vs home | 3–215th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–3 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 0–5 NY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.