Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Jaden IveyPoints28
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Cade CunninghamRebounds10
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints22
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists6
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–104
- Q46.0Patrick Baldwin Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2124–104
- Q46.0Wizards offensive team rebound124–103
- Q46.0Patrick Baldwin Jr. misses free throw 1 of 2124–103
- Q46.0Ronald Holland II personal foul124–103
- Q49.1shot clock turnover124–103
- Q433.1Marvin Bagley III makes tip shot124–103
- Q434.1Marvin Bagley III offensive rebound124–101
- Q435.1Marvin Bagley III misses driving floating jump shot124–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:14Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 33 – 25 WSH · DET 73% → 79% +6DET 73% → 79%+6 pts
- Q28:48Marcus Sasser makes 27-foot three pointer (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 36 – 27 WSH · DET 75% → 81% +6DET 75% → 81%+6 pts
- Q28:31Kyle Kuzma makes 27-foot three point jumper (Corey Kispert assists)DET 36 – 30 WSH · WSH 19% → 25% +6WSH 19% → 25%+6 pts
- Q28:08Cade Cunningham makes 25-foot three pointerDET 39 – 30 WSH · DET 75% → 81% +6DET 75% → 81%+6 pts
- Q23:18Malik Beasley makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)DET 55 – 47 WSH · DET 73% → 80% +6DET 73% → 80%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DET -4.5
- ML DET -205 / WSH +170
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -3
- DET 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- DET: Elo 62.7%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- DET -181
- WSH +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 118.0 – 113.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1412 | 1340 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | −31 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +90 Elo | DET 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 61.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30108.6 | Points scored | 110.821st of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 123.930th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −13.130th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30107.3 | Offense rating | 104.530th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 116.829th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.7 | Pace | 105.93rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 11th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 1–326th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–5 | 3–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | — |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 3–8 |
| Overs–unders | 5–9 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–2 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.