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Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast

FinalIND wins series 4-1

Away

Pacers

6-10

117–129

at

Home

Bucks

7-9

IND 34%MIL 66%

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Fiserv Forum · FanDuel SN IN, FanDuel SN WI

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.

MIL favored IND favored127 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4MIL50%IND

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game116–129
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–129
  • Q47.1Chris Livingston makes dunk116–129
  • Q47.1Chris Livingston offensive rebound116–127
  • Q47.1Andre Jackson Jr. misses driving layup116–127
  • Q416.1Chris Livingston defensive rebound116–127
  • Q420.0Quenton Jackson misses 22-foot three point jumper116–127
  • Q424.1Pacers offensive team rebound116–127
  • Q424.1Moses Brown misses layup116–127
  • Q430.1Tristen Newton makes technical free throw117–127

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q23:25Myles Turner makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 42 – 44 MIL · IND 26% → 33% +7
  2. Q21:18Obi Toppin makes tip shotIND 44 – 46 MIL · IND 23% → 33% +10
  3. Q245.1Taurean Prince makes 27-foot three point shot (Damian Lillard assists)IND 44 – 53 MIL · MIL 72% → 83% +11
  4. Q45:52Jarace Walker makes 1-foot two point shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 102 – 108 MIL · IND 9% → 15% +6
  5. Q45:33Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)IND 102 – 111 MIL · MIL 85% → 94% +8

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Bucks 66%

SolidHit
IND 34%MIL 66%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.

Market
MIL -5.5
ML IND +180 / MIL -215
Pre-line forecast
MIL 65%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIL -2
MIL 58%
Ratings vs. market
−7.4 pts
MIL: Elo 58.2%, market 65.6%
Fair odds
MIL -191
IND +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
IND 115.0 – 120.5 MIL
Posted spread, posted total 235.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorINDMILWhy
Team rating14791498Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups−2+1IND: Usual rotation · MIL: Usual rotation (from the box score)
Elo ratingsMIL +58 EloMIL 58.2%
Market-implied ratingsMIL 65.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIL 65.1%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMIL 65.6%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks compared, with each team's league rank
INDStatMIL
13th of 30114.3Points scored111.318th of 30
25th of 30118.4Points allowed112.215th of 30
21st of 30−4.1Margin−0.917th of 30
15th of 30111.1Offense rating110.517th of 30
25th of 30115.2Defense rating111.416th of 30
13th of 30101.3Pace100.018th of 30
19th of 304–6Last 105–512th of 30
21st of 302–7Road vs home5–315th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Pacers

−2 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Bucks

+1 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PacersBucks
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonINDMIL
Against the spread7–85–10
Last 104–64–6
Favorite3–54–7
Underdog4–31–3
Overs–unders11–45–10
Overs–unders, last 108–23–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

IND 8–3 MIL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.