Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints27
- Zach LaVineAssists6
- Torrey CraigRebounds6
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints41
- Damian LillardAssists10
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–122
- Q412.1Stanley Umude defensive rebound106–122
- Q416.0Matas Buzelis misses 24-foot three point shot106–122
- Q420.1Talen Horton-Tucker defensive rebound106–122
- Q423.0Andre Jackson Jr. misses driving layup106–122
- Q441.0MarJon Beauchamp defensive rebound106–122
- Q443.1Jevon Carter misses driving layup106–122
- Q454.1Matas Buzelis defensive rebound106–122
- Q457.1MarJon Beauchamp misses 26-foot three point jumper106–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:13Torrey Craig makes 28-foot three point jumper (Zach LaVine assists)CHI 80 – 81 MIL · CHI 22% → 31% +9CHI 22% → 31%+9 pts
- Q32:34AJ Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)CHI 82 – 87 MIL · MIL 72% → 80% +9MIL 72% → 80%+9 pts
- Q48:39Coby White makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)CHI 99 – 102 MIL · CHI 15% → 25% +10CHI 15% → 25%+10 pts
- Q47:56Julian Phillips makes 22-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 102 – 104 MIL · CHI 18% → 30% +12CHI 18% → 30%+12 pts
- Q46:51AJ Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brook Lopez assists)CHI 102 – 109 MIL · MIL 79% → 89% +10MIL 79% → 89%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -8.5
- ML CHI +290 / MIL -380
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -2
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.4%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- MIL -309
- CHI +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 115.5 – 124.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | −7 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +59 Elo | MIL 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 70.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 69.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 110.520th of 30 |
| 29th of 30122.9 | Points allowed | 112.615th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.9 | Margin | −2.119th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 109.519th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.5 | Defense rating | 111.617th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.5 | Pace | 100.216th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 7th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 4–316th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–7 | 4–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–3 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.