Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints29
- Josh GiddeyAssists10
- Nikola VucevicRebounds12
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints26
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Jalen DurenRebounds22
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–112
- Q421.1Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound122–112
- Q422.0Ronald Holland II misses driving layup122–112
- Q435.1Ronald Holland II enters the game for Cade Cunningham122–112
- Q435.1Coby White makes free throw 2 of 2122–112
- Q435.1Coby White makes free throw 1 of 2121–112
- Q435.1Jaden Ivey personal foul120–112
- Q439.0Zach LaVine defensive rebound120–112
- Q441.2Nikola Vucevic blocks Jaden Ivey 's 28-foot three point jumper120–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:05Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three pointer (Isaiah Stewart assists)CHI 91 – 85 DET · DET 23% → 33% +10DET 23% → 33%+10 pts
- Q410:17Malik Beasley makes 27-foot three pointer (Cade Cunningham assists)CHI 95 – 92 DET · DET 29% → 42% +13DET 29% → 42%+13 pts
- Q48:06Josh Giddey makes driving layupCHI 97 – 95 DET · CHI 45% → 55% +10CHI 45% → 55%+10 pts
- Q47:46Josh Giddey makes 3-foot dunk (Coby White assists)CHI 99 – 95 DET · CHI 56% → 66% +10CHI 56% → 66%+10 pts
- Q46:46Zach LaVine makes 27-foot three point jumperCHI 102 – 95 DET · CHI 67% → 81% +13CHI 67% → 81%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DET -4.5
- ML CHI +150 / DET -175
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -2.5
- DET 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- DET: Elo 60.8%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -159
- CHI +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 115.0 – 119.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1424 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | DET and CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −27 | +24 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +76 Elo | DET 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30115.6 | Points scored | 109.623rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.7 | Points allowed | 110.26th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−8.1 | Margin | −0.616th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30108.0 | Offense rating | 108.221st of 30 |
| 27th of 30115.6 | Defense rating | 108.86th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.1 | Pace | 99.920th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 7th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 3–423rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–7 | 10–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | — | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5 | 5–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–2 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.