Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints31
- Jayson TatumAssists8
- Jaylen BrownRebounds11
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints23
- Jordan PooleAssists8
- Malcolm BrogdonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–96
- Q40.0Wizards offensive team rebound108–96
- Q40.1Jordan Poole misses driving layup108–96
- Q45.0Jrue Holiday makes free throw 2 of 2108–96
- Q45.0Corey Kispert enters the game for Anthony Gill107–96
- Q45.0Jordan Poole enters the game for Bilal Coulibaly107–96
- Q45.0Jrue Holiday makes free throw 1 of 2107–96
- Q45.0Kyle Kuzma personal take foul106–96
- Q45.2Anthony Gill enters the game for Jonas Valanciunas106–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:02Jaylen Brown makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luke Kornet assists)BOS 38 – 45 WSH · BOS 64% → 71% +7BOS 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q34:48Kyle Kuzma makes 24-foot running pullup jump shot (Jordan Poole assists)BOS 63 – 66 WSH · WSH 22% → 31% +9WSH 22% → 31%+9 pts
- Q32:52Sam Hauser makes 26-foot three point shot (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 70 – 68 WSH · BOS 73% → 82% +8BOS 73% → 82%+8 pts
- Q48:35Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)BOS 85 – 80 WSH · BOS 79% → 88% +9BOS 79% → 88%+9 pts
- Q44:14Jordan Poole makes 30-foot running pullup jump shot (Bilal Coulibaly assists)BOS 91 – 87 WSH · WSH 5% → 14% +9WSH 5% → 14%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 90%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -15.5
- ML BOS -1500 / WSH +875
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 91%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -13
- BOS 89%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 88.7%, market 90.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -914
- WSH +914 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 126.5 – 111.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1656 | 1323 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | −46 | BOS: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −23 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +358 Elo | BOS 88.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 91.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 91.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 90.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.5 | Points scored | 109.924th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 124.730th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+9.7 | Margin | −14.830th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30119.5 | Offense rating | 104.628th of 30 |
| 10th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 118.730th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.5 | Pace | 104.94th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–1 | Road vs home | 1–427th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+15 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis surgery rehab−23 Elo
Wizards
−46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–8 | 3–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | — |
| Underdog | — | 3–10 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–0 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.