Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints35
- Darius GarlandAssists7
- Evan MobleyRebounds11
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints33
- Jaylen BrownAssists8
- Jayson TatumRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–120
- Q40.0(00:00) [Cavaliers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)117–120
- Q40.0Ty Jerome makes 14-foot jump bank shot (Evan Mobley assists)117–120
- Q42.0Evan Mobley offensive rebound115–120
- Q43.2Donovan Mitchell misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot115–120
- Q48.0Al Horford makes 1-foot dunk (Jaylen Brown assists)115–120
- Q414.0Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2115–118
- Q414.0Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2114–118
- Q414.0Jayson Tatum personal foul113–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q30.1Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotCLE 88 – 93 BOS · BOS 68% → 78% +10BOS 68% → 78%+10 pts
- Q411:11Al Horford makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)CLE 90 – 96 BOS · BOS 72% → 81% +10BOS 72% → 81%+10 pts
- Q410:56Donovan Mitchell makes 26-foot three pointerCLE 93 – 96 BOS · CLE 18% → 28% +10CLE 18% → 28%+10 pts
- Q47:12Craig Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point shot (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 100 – 102 BOS · CLE 19% → 32% +13CLE 19% → 32%+13 pts
- Q45:31Payton Pritchard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)CLE 100 – 107 BOS · BOS 78% → 89% +11BOS 78% → 89%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -6.5
- ML CLE +215 / BOS -265
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -0.5
- BOS 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.0%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -229
- CLE +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 114.0 – 120.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1611 | 1651 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +67 | +13 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +21 Elo | BOS 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 58.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.7 | Points scored | 121.62nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.4 | Points allowed | 111.413th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.3 | Margin | +10.23rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.2 | Offense rating | 119.13rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 109.16th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.1 | Pace | 99.821st of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 1st of 307–0 | Road vs home | 4–212th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–4 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–4 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | — |
| Overs–unders | 10–5 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–6 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- May 15CLE 98 @ BOS 113PlayoffsPicked BOS 83%Hit
- May 13BOS 109 @ CLE 102PlayoffsPicked BOS 74%Hit
- May 11BOS 106 @ CLE 93PlayoffsPicked BOS 64%Hit
- May 9CLE 118 @ BOS 94PlayoffsPicked BOS 78%Miss
- May 7CLE 95 @ BOS 120PlayoffsPicked BOS 76%Hit
- Mar 5BOS 104 @ CLE 105Picked BOS 64%Miss
- Dec 14CLE 107 @ BOS 116Picked BOS 67%Hit
- Dec 12CLE 113 @ BOS 120Picked BOS 70%Hit