Charlotte Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints31
- LaMelo BallAssists12
- Grant WilliamsRebounds9
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints25
- Darius GarlandAssists12
- Jarrett AllenRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–128
- Q41.0Georges Niang defensive rebound114–128
- Q42.0Jared Rhoden misses 1-foot tip shot114–128
- Q42.0Jared Rhoden offensive rebound114–128
- Q42.0Tidjane Salaun misses two point shot114–128
- Q416.1Luke Travers bad pass (Tidjane Salaun steals)114–128
- Q418.0Luke Travers defensive rebound114–128
- Q422.1JT Thor blocks Tidjane Salaun 's 33-foot three point pullup jump shot114–128
- Q433.0JT Thor makes driving layup (Georges Niang assists)114–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:06LaMelo Ball makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Miles Bridges assists)CHA 79 – 82 CLE · CHA 16% → 23% +7CHA 16% → 23%+7 pts
- Q333.1Vasilije Micic makes 28-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)CHA 96 – 99 CLE · CHA 15% → 24% +8CHA 15% → 24%+8 pts
- Q33.1Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (Grant Williams assists)CHA 99 – 102 CLE · CHA 15% → 24% +9CHA 15% → 24%+9 pts
- Q411:44Ty Jerome makes driving layup (Caris LeVert assists)CHA 99 – 104 CLE · CLE 76% → 82% +6CLE 76% → 82%+6 pts
- Q49:17Georges Niang makes 25-foot three point jumper (Craig Porter Jr. assists)CHA 101 – 110 CLE · CLE 86% → 92% +7CLE 86% → 92%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -10.5
- ML CHA +350 / CLE -450
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -9.5
- CLE 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 82.7%, market 78.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -368
- CHA +368 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 107.5 – 118.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1608 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −2 | −6 | CHA: Usual rotation · CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +272 Elo | CLE 82.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 85.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 84.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 78.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.3 | Points scored | 123.41st of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 111.210th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.5 | Margin | +12.12nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30107.0 | Offense rating | 120.71st of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 108.86th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.2 | Pace | 102.38th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301–4 | Road vs home | 7–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–5 | 10–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 8–4 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–9 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–1 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.