Memphis Grizzlies at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Scotty Pippen Jr.Points30
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists10
- Santi AldamaRebounds10
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints29
- Josh GiddeyAssists8
- Nikola VucevicRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game142–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter142–131
- Q40.0Bulls offensive team rebound142–131
- Q40.1Jevon Carter misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot142–131
- Q43.1Chris Duarte offensive rebound142–131
- Q45.0Matas Buzelis misses 21-foot pullup jump shot142–131
- Q414.1shot clock turnover142–131
- Q438.1Jaylen Wells defensive rebound142–131
- Q440.0E.J. Liddell misses 26-foot three point jumper142–131
- Q446.0Scotty Pippen Jr. makes driving layup (Jaylen Wells assists)142–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:22Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandon Clarke assists)MEM 67 – 60 CHI · MEM 69% → 77% +7MEM 69% → 77%+7 pts
- Q311:02Josh Giddey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)MEM 67 – 63 CHI · CHI 23% → 31% +7CHI 23% → 31%+7 pts
- Q39:29Scotty Pippen Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)MEM 74 – 66 CHI · MEM 72% → 79% +7MEM 72% → 79%+7 pts
- Q39:04Zach LaVine makes 25-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)MEM 74 – 69 CHI · CHI 20% → 28% +7CHI 20% → 28%+7 pts
- Q37:27Coby White makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMEM 83 – 77 CHI · CHI 18% → 25% +7CHI 18% → 25%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -4.5
- ML MEM -180 / CHI +150
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -1.5
- MEM 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- MEM: Elo 56.0%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- MEM -161
- CHI +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 124.5 – 120.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 244.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +37 | +5 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +42 Elo | MEM 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 58.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30118.9 | Points scored | 116.68th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 122.829th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.4 | Margin | −6.225th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 109.818th of 30 |
| 5th of 30106.1 | Defense rating | 115.726th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.2 | Pace | 106.21st of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 12th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 2–527th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–6 | 8–8 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | — |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 11–5 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 0–3 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.