Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points29
- Marcus SmartAssists6
- Zach EdeyRebounds8
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints35
- LeBron JamesAssists14
- Anthony DavisRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–128
- Q41.0Anthony Davis defensive rebound123–128
- Q43.0Jaren Jackson Jr. misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot123–128
- Q410.1Anthony Davis makes free throw 2 of 2123–128
- Q410.1Cam Reddish enters the game for Dalton Knecht123–127
- Q410.1Anthony Davis makes free throw 1 of 2123–127
- Q410.1Luke Kennard personal take foul123–126
- Q415.1Santi Aldama makes tip shot123–126
- Q415.1Santi Aldama offensive rebound121–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:38Dalton Knecht makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (LeBron James assists)MEM 96 – 94 LAL · LAL 41% → 53% +13LAL 41% → 53%+13 pts
- Q49:58D'Angelo Russell makes 26-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)MEM 98 – 99 LAL · LAL 52% → 65% +13LAL 52% → 65%+13 pts
- Q44:51Anthony Davis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Dalton Knecht assists)MEM 108 – 111 LAL · LAL 58% → 75% +18LAL 58% → 75%+18 pts
- Q44:19LeBron James makes 1-foot driving dunkMEM 110 – 113 LAL · LAL 64% → 76% +12LAL 64% → 76%+12 pts
- Q43:49Anthony Davis makes 25-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)MEM 110 – 116 LAL · LAL 77% → 90% +13LAL 77% → 90%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -7.5
- ML MEM +250 / LAL -315
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -2.5
- LAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.0 pts
- LAL: Elo 59.7%, market 72.7%
- Fair odds
- LAL -266
- MEM +266 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 113.0 – 120.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | +9 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +68 Elo | LAL 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 63.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 72.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.9 | Points scored | 116.66th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.5 | Points allowed | 116.924th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+9.4 | Margin | −0.316th of 30 |
| 6th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 114.27th of 30 |
| 4th of 30105.7 | Defense rating | 114.525th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.6 | Pace | 102.19th of 30 |
| 7th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–5 | 6–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 2–3 LAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.