Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points20
- Luke KennardAssists11
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds7
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints20
- Scoot HendersonAssists8
- Deandre AytonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–89
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–89
- Q40.1Trail Blazers offensive team rebound134–89
- Q40.1Zach Edey blocks Dalano Banton 's 3-foot driving layup134–89
- Q48.1shot clock turnover134–89
- Q430.1John Konchar defensive rebound134–89
- Q434.0Duop Reath misses 28-foot three point jumper134–89
- Q440.1Yuki Kawamura makes 17-foot two point shot134–89
- Q457.1Colin Castleton defensive rebound132–89
- Q41:03Dalano Banton misses 27-foot three point jumper132–89
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:49Jerami Grant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)MEM 4 – 5 POR · POR 44% → 50% +6POR 44% → 50%+6 pts
- Q17:56Jaylen Wells makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)MEM 9 – 7 POR · MEM 50% → 56% +6MEM 50% → 56%+6 pts
- Q17:24Jake LaRavia makes 22-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)MEM 12 – 7 POR · MEM 56% → 63% +6MEM 56% → 63%+6 pts
- Q14:41Santi Aldama makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)MEM 23 – 9 POR · MEM 75% → 80% +5MEM 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q211:41Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Santi Aldama assists)MEM 34 – 17 POR · MEM 81% → 86% +4MEM 81% → 86%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -1.5
- ML MEM -120 / POR +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -1.5
- MEM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- MEM: Elo 55.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MEM -109
- POR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 114.0 – 112.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | −18 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +37 Elo | MEM 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 58.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30119.6 | Points scored | 107.225th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 114.920th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.8 | Margin | −7.727th of 30 |
| 6th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 105.728th of 30 |
| 9th of 30108.5 | Defense rating | 113.218th of 30 |
| 4th of 30105.0 | Pace | 101.413th of 30 |
| 10th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 1–324th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | — |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 1–3 POR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.