Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points32
- Marcus SmartAssists6
- Zach EdeyRebounds9
Warriors- Buddy HieldPoints18
- Draymond GreenAssists7
- Draymond GreenRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–123
- Q40.0(00:00) [Grizzlies] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)118–123
- Q40.1Jaylen Wells makes driving layup118–123
- Q45.0Buddy Hield lost ball turnover (Desmond Bane steals)116–123
- Q45.0Desmond Bane vs. Buddy Hield (Jaylen Wells gains possession)116–123
- Q47.1Zach Edey enters the game for Jake LaRavia116–123
- Q412.0Desmond Bane makes driving layup116–123
- Q418.1Buddy Hield traveling114–123
- Q423.0Jake LaRavia enters the game for Zach Edey114–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:20Desmond Bane makes 24-foot three pointer (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)MEM 10 – 5 GS · MEM 33% → 39% +6MEM 33% → 39%+6 pts
- Q18:09Andrew Wiggins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)MEM 10 – 8 GS · GS 61% → 67% +6GS 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q14:54Zach Edey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)MEM 19 – 16 GS · MEM 30% → 36% +6MEM 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q12:17Marcus Smart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)MEM 24 – 22 GS · MEM 28% → 34% +6MEM 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q11:46Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three pointer (Kevon Looney assists)MEM 24 – 25 GS · GS 65% → 72% +6GS 65% → 72%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- GS -6.5
- ML MEM +240 / GS -300
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -6
- GS 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- GS: Elo 73.1%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- GS -255
- MEM +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 115.0 – 121.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1610 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | +29 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +174 Elo | GS 73.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 73.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 73.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30121.1 | Points scored | 121.23rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 110.16th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+8.2 | Margin | +11.13rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 117.54th of 30 |
| 5th of 30106.8 | Defense rating | 106.84th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.7 | Pace | 101.911th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 8th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–5 | 9–2 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 5–1 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–4 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 1–2 GS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.