Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints31
- Luka DoncicAssists6
- Luka DoncicRebounds8
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints37
- Stephen CurryAssists9
- Kevon LooneyRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–120
- Q42.0De'Anthony Melton defensive rebound117–120
- Q45.0Luka Doncic misses three point shot117–120
- Q412.2Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2117–120
- Q412.2Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2117–119
- Q412.2Quentin Grimes personal foul117–118
- Q413.2Klay Thompson personal foul117–118
- Q421.1Quentin Grimes makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Klay Thompson assists)117–118
- Q426.1Mavericks Full timeout114–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:17Klay Thompson makes 27-foot three point shot (Quentin Grimes assists)DAL 110 – 105 GS · DAL 61% → 77% +16DAL 61% → 77%+16 pts
- Q42:36Stephen Curry makes 28-foot three pointerDAL 114 – 113 GS · GS 19% → 42% +23GS 19% → 42%+23 pts
- Q41:50Stephen Curry makes 4-foot two point shotDAL 114 – 115 GS · GS 40% → 61% +21GS 40% → 61%+21 pts
- Q427.1Stephen Curry makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshotDAL 114 – 118 GS · GS 71% → 98% +28GS 71% → 98%+28 pts
- Q421.1Quentin Grimes makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Klay Thompson assists)DAL 117 – 118 GS · DAL <1% → 27% +26DAL <1% → 27%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- GS -2.5
- ML DAL +115 / GS -135
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -3
- GS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- GS: Elo 61.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- GS -124
- DAL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 116.5 – 119.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1577 | 1606 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | +32 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +78 Elo | GS 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 54.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.1 | Points scored | 121.32nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.1 | Points allowed | 109.47th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.0 | Margin | +11.93rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 117.53rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 106.05th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.3 | Pace | 102.012th of 30 |
| 18th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–1 GS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.