Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints43
- Luka DoncicAssists9
- Luka DoncicRebounds9
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints37
- Nikola JokicAssists15
- Nikola JokicRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–122
- Q40.0Nikola Jokic defensive rebound120–122
- Q40.1Daniel Gafford misses tip shot120–122
- Q42.1Daniel Gafford offensive rebound120–122
- Q42.1Kyrie Irving misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot120–122
- Q46.1Russell Westbrook enters the game for Michael Porter Jr.120–122
- Q46.1Mavericks Full timeout120–122
- Q46.1Michael Porter Jr. makes 14-foot driving floating jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)120–122
- Q426.1Michael Porter Jr. defensive rebound120–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:28Kyrie Irving makes 19-foot jumperDAL 118 – 116 DEN · DAL 49% → 67% +18DAL 49% → 67%+18 pts
- Q42:04Nikola Jokic makes 3-foot two point shot (Michael Porter Jr. assists)DAL 118 – 118 DEN · DEN 32% → 51% +19DEN 32% → 51%+19 pts
- Q41:39Kyrie Irving makes 15-foot two point shotDAL 120 – 118 DEN · DAL 49% → 71% +21DAL 49% → 71%+21 pts
- Q448.1Nikola Jokic makes tip shotDAL 120 – 120 DEN · DEN 21% → 51% +29DEN 21% → 51%+29 pts
- Q46.1Michael Porter Jr. makes 14-foot driving floating jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)DAL 120 – 122 DEN · DEN 50% → 99% +49DEN 50% → 99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -2.5
- ML DAL +110 / DEN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- DEN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- DEN: Elo 50.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -119
- DAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 115.5 – 118.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | −18 | DAL: Usual rotation · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +1 Elo | DEN 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 51.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.4 | Points scored | 120.83rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30108.8 | Points allowed | 117.823rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.7 | Margin | +3.012th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 115.25th of 30 |
| 9th of 30108.4 | Defense rating | 112.318th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.5 | Pace | 102.59th of 30 |
| 10th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 4–28th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 1–2 DEN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.