Atlanta Hawks at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints25
- Trae YoungAssists13
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds13
Bulls- Zach LaVinePoints26
- Coby WhiteAssists9
- Nikola VucevicRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–136
- Q40.1Hawks offensive team rebound122–136
- Q40.1Dyson Daniels misses 14-foot two point shot122–136
- Q41.1Nikola Vucevic lost ball turnover (Dyson Daniels steals)122–136
- Q41.1Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound122–136
- Q42.1Clint Capela misses free throw 2 of 2122–136
- Q42.1Hawks offensive team rebound122–136
- Q42.1Clint Capela misses free throw 1 of 2122–136
- Q42.1Josh Giddey loose ball foul122–136
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:05Dalen Terry makes 23-foot three point shot (Coby White assists)ATL 30 – 33 CHI · CHI 46% → 53% +7CHI 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q23:02Ayo Dosunmu makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)ATL 43 – 49 CHI · CHI 54% → 62% +8CHI 54% → 62%+8 pts
- Q21:47Nikola Vucevic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)ATL 45 – 53 CHI · CHI 60% → 68% +8CHI 60% → 68%+8 pts
- Q311:45Josh Giddey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)ATL 51 – 61 CHI · CHI 66% → 74% +8CHI 66% → 74%+8 pts
- Q310:48Zach LaVine makes 22-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)ATL 53 – 64 CHI · CHI 70% → 77% +7CHI 70% → 77%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -1.5
- ML ATL -135 / CHI +115
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -2
- ATL 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 42.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -124
- CHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 124.0 – 122.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 246.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | −12 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | ATL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +53 Elo | CHI 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 52.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.9 | Points scored | 115.410th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.6 | Points allowed | 122.929th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.6 | Margin | −7.527th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 108.921st of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 116.027th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.7 | Pace | 105.92nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 16th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 1–528th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–10 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | — |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders | 11–5 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 1–3 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.