Atlanta Hawks at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints15
- Trae YoungAssists11
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds14
Warriors- Andrew WigginsPoints27
- Draymond GreenAssists9
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–120
- Q411.1Zaccharie Risacher makes 9-foot hook shot97–120
- Q417.2Garrison Mathews defensive rebound95–120
- Q418.2Jonathan Kuminga misses dunk95–120
- Q418.2Jonathan Kuminga offensive rebound95–120
- Q420.1Kyle Anderson misses 19-foot pullup jump shot95–120
- Q440.1Kevon Looney defensive rebound95–120
- Q443.1David Roddy misses 23-foot three point shot95–120
- Q446.1Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound95–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:16Dyson Daniels makes 24-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 3 – 2 GS · ATL 25% → 30% +5ATL 25% → 30%+5 pts
- Q110:36Andrew Wiggins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)ATL 3 – 7 GS · GS 73% → 78% +5GS 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q19:30Zaccharie Risacher makes 23-foot three point shot (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 6 – 7 GS · ATL 22% → 27% +5ATL 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q17:53Jalen Johnson makes 27-foot three point shot (Zaccharie Risacher assists)ATL 13 – 12 GS · ATL 26% → 31% +6ATL 26% → 31%+6 pts
- Q16:02Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three pointer (Draymond Green assists)ATL 15 – 21 GS · GS 76% → 81% +5GS 76% → 81%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- GS -7.5
- ML ATL +240 / GS -290
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -7.5
- GS 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- GS: Elo 76.6%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- GS -253
- ATL +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 116.5 – 124.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1604 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | +25 | ATL: Usual rotation · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +206 Elo | GS 76.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 70.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 70.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 119.63rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.5 | Points allowed | 110.17th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.4 | Margin | +9.54th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 115.16th of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 106.04th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.1 | Pace | 102.85th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 4–14th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–9 | 9–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 11–4 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 1–1 GS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.