Golden State Warriors at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints26
- Draymond GreenAssists7
- Draymond GreenRebounds9
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints23
- James HardenAssists16
- Ivica ZubacRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–102
- Q41.1Warriors offensive team rebound99–102
- Q42.0Gary Payton II misses 26-foot three point jumper99–102
- Q46.1Draymond Green offensive rebound99–102
- Q412.1Stephen Curry misses 25-foot three point jumper99–102
- Q421.1Norman Powell lost ball turnover (Gary Payton II steals)99–102
- Q435.0Gary Payton II enters the game for Buddy Hield99–102
- Q435.0Ivica Zubac enters the game for Derrick Jones Jr.99–102
- Q435.0Clippers Full timeout99–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:54Amir Coffey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)GS 77 – 82 LAC · LAC 53% → 67% +14LAC 53% → 67%+14 pts
- Q46:20Lindy Waters III makes 24-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)GS 85 – 89 LAC · GS 19% → 33% +14GS 19% → 33%+14 pts
- Q46:03Norman Powell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)GS 85 – 92 LAC · LAC 67% → 81% +14LAC 67% → 81%+14 pts
- Q45:43Stephen Curry makes 30-foot three pointerGS 88 – 92 LAC · GS 18% → 32% +14GS 18% → 32%+14 pts
- Q44:59Norman Powell makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)GS 90 – 97 LAC · LAC 70% → 84% +14LAC 70% → 84%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- GS -5.5
- ML GS -210 / LAC +175
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -5.5
- GS 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- GS: Elo 70.8%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- GS -186
- LAC +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 116.0 – 110.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1613 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +26 | −57 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +154 Elo | GS 70.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 63.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.3 | Points scored | 109.723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.8 | Points allowed | 109.94th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+10.6 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 4th of 30116.6 | Offense rating | 110.218th of 30 |
| 5th of 30106.5 | Defense rating | 110.310th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.9 | Pace | 98.724th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–1 | Road vs home | 4–418th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–3 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–2 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–3 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 1–4 LAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.