Utah Jazz at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Jordan ClarksonPoints21
- Isaiah CollierAssists8
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds10
Clippers- Ivica ZubacPoints22
- James HardenAssists11
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–115
- Q46.0Norman Powell defensive rebound105–115
- Q47.2Lauri Markkanen misses 24-foot three point shot105–115
- Q419.1Isaiah Collier defensive rebound105–115
- Q422.0Kevin Porter Jr. misses 29-foot three point jumper105–115
- Q436.1Ivica Zubac offensive rebound105–115
- Q441.2Kris Dunn misses 24-foot three point jumper105–115
- Q456.0Clippers offensive team rebound105–116
- Q456.0Norman Powell misses free throw flagrant 2 of 2105–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:10Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point jumper (John Collins assists)UTAH 8 – 10 LAC · UTAH 15% → 20% +4UTAH 15% → 20%+4 pts
- Q16:29Collin Sexton makes 28-foot three pointerUTAH 13 – 16 LAC · UTAH 14% → 18% +4UTAH 14% → 18%+4 pts
- Q16:09James Harden makes 26-foot three pointerUTAH 13 – 19 LAC · LAC 82% → 86% +4LAC 82% → 86%+4 pts
- Q12:35Cody Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 23 – 28 LAC · UTAH 12% → 16% +4UTAH 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q43:18Jordan Clarkson makes 25-foot three pointerUTAH 103 – 110 LAC · UTAH 1% → 6% +4UTAH 1% → 6%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -9.5
- ML UTAH +340 / LAC -450
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -6.5
- LAC 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- LAC: Elo 73.9%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- LAC -360
- UTAH +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 106.0 – 115.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1376 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −8 | −69 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +181 Elo | LAC 73.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 75.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 75.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30107.4 | Points scored | 109.223rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.7 | Points allowed | 110.26th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.3 | Margin | −1.017th of 30 |
| 27th of 30105.8 | Offense rating | 109.420th of 30 |
| 29th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 110.410th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.6 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 17th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 3–422nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–6 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–2 LAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.