Phoenix Suns at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints31
- Tyus JonesAssists7
- Mason PlumleeRebounds14
Jazz- John CollinsPoints29
- Jordan ClarksonAssists8
- John CollinsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–112
- Q42.1Collin Sexton offensive rebound120–112
- Q42.1Jordan Clarkson misses 23-foot three point jumper120–112
- Q49.1John Collins defensive rebound120–112
- Q411.0Mason Plumlee misses free throw 2 of 2120–112
- Q411.0Mason Plumlee makes free throw 1 of 2120–112
- Q411.0Keyonte George personal take foul119–112
- Q411.1John Collins turnover119–112
- Q411.1John Collins offensive foul119–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:24Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Lauri Markkanen assists)PHX 6 – 7 UTAH · UTAH 32% → 38% +6UTAH 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q18:10Bradley Beal makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)PHX 9 – 7 UTAH · PHX 62% → 68% +6PHX 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q49:24Bradley Beal makes 24-foot three pointerPHX 94 – 83 UTAH · PHX 87% → 93% +6PHX 87% → 93%+6 pts
- Q48:10Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point jumper (John Collins assists)PHX 96 – 88 UTAH · UTAH 6% → 12% +6UTAH 6% → 12%+6 pts
- Q47:41Devin Booker makes 25-foot three pointerPHX 99 – 88 UTAH · PHX 88% → 94% +6PHX 88% → 94%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -5.5
- ML PHX -200 / UTAH +170
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3.5
- PHX 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- PHX: Elo 63.8%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- PHX -180
- UTAH +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 117.0 – 111.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1379 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −71 | −27 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +98 Elo | PHX 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 67.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 105.030th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 118.926th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.1 | Margin | −13.930th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 101.730th of 30 |
| 14th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 115.225th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.9 | Pace | 103.16th of 30 |
| 5th of 303–1 | Road vs home | 0–430th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−71 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–7 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | — |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 4–0 UTAH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.