Utah Jazz at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints25
- Jordan ClarksonAssists5
- John CollinsRebounds8
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints49
- De'Aaron FoxAssists9
- Keegan MurrayRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–121
- Q40.0Jazz offensive team rebound117–121
- Q40.0Jordan Clarkson misses 56-foot three point shot117–121
- Q41.1De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 2117–121
- Q41.1De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 1 of 2117–120
- Q41.1Svi Mykhailiuk enters the game for Collin Sexton117–119
- Q41.1Collin Sexton personal foul117–119
- Q43.0Keyonte George enters the game for Drew Eubanks117–119
- Q43.0Jordan McLaughlin enters the game for Alex Len117–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:25Kevin Huerter makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)UTAH 107 – 107 SAC · SAC 39% → 57% +18SAC 39% → 57%+18 pts
- Q44:59Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point jumperUTAH 110 – 107 SAC · UTAH 43% → 62% +19UTAH 43% → 62%+19 pts
- Q42:46De'Aaron Fox makes 8-foot driving floating jump shotUTAH 112 – 113 SAC · SAC 47% → 64% +17SAC 47% → 64%+17 pts
- Q41:37De'Aaron Fox makes 9-foot two point shot (Trey Lyles assists)UTAH 116 – 115 SAC · SAC 23% → 43% +20SAC 23% → 43%+20 pts
- Q41:04Jordan McLaughlin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keegan Murray assists)UTAH 116 – 118 SAC · SAC 39% → 78% +39SAC 39% → 78%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -7.5
- ML UTAH +230 / SAC -280
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -2.5
- SAC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- SAC: Elo 60.2%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- SAC -243
- UTAH +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 110.5 – 118.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1381 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −17 | −70 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +72 Elo | SAC 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 63.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.5 | Points scored | 117.26th of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.5 | Points allowed | 113.820th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.9 | Margin | +3.410th of 30 |
| 28th of 30104.6 | Offense rating | 113.69th of 30 |
| 29th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 110.311th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.9 | Pace | 100.613th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 17th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 3–317th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–6 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–4 SAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.