Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Josh OkogiePoints25
- Tyus JonesAssists8
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds11
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints29
- De'Aaron FoxAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–127
- Q46.1Bol Bol makes free throw 1 of 1104–127
- Q46.1Mason Jones shooting foul103–127
- Q46.1Bol Bol makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Damion Lee assists)103–127
- Q425.1Isaac Jones makes 1-foot dunk (Mason Jones assists)101–127
- Q440.1Doug McDermott defensive rebound101–125
- Q442.1Jalen Bridges misses 27-foot three point jumper101–125
- Q41:06Alex Len makes 2-foot layup (Mason Jones assists)101–125
- Q41:14Oso Ighodaro makes two point shot101–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:14Royce O'Neale makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)PHX 66 – 64 SAC · PHX 31% → 39% +9PHX 31% → 39%+9 pts
- Q38:13Tyus Jones makes 1-foot two point shotPHX 68 – 64 SAC · PHX 40% → 46% +6PHX 40% → 46%+6 pts
- Q35:05Domantas Sabonis makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)PHX 68 – 75 SAC · SAC 77% → 84% +7SAC 77% → 84%+7 pts
- Q33:20TyTy Washington Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 71 – 77 SAC · PHX 12% → 18% +6PHX 12% → 18%+6 pts
- Q32:42Monte Morris makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)PHX 74 – 79 SAC · PHX 13% → 20% +7PHX 13% → 20%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -8.5
- ML PHX +270 / SAC -340
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -4
- SAC 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- SAC: Elo 64.8%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- SAC -286
- PHX +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 109.0 – 117.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −63 | +26 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +106 Elo | SAC 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 65.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 115.59th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.6 | Points allowed | 113.317th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.6 | Margin | +2.313th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.0 | Offense rating | 111.912th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 109.710th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.3 | Pace | 101.213th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 4th of 304–1 | Road vs home | 2–215th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–7 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 3–3 SAC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.