Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints37
- Luka DoncicAssists9
- Luka DoncicRebounds7
Jazz- John CollinsPoints28
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists6
- John CollinsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–115
- Q40.1Mavericks offensive team rebound113–115
- Q40.1Naji Marshall misses 23-foot three point jumper113–115
- Q46.1Mavericks Full timeout113–115
- Q46.1John Collins makes 3-foot dunk (Jordan Clarkson assists)113–115
- Q427.1Klay Thompson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)113–113
- Q436.1Klay Thompson enters the game for Jaden Hardy110–113
- Q436.1Mavericks Full timeout110–113
- Q436.1John Collins makes dunk110–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:15Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three point jumperDAL 108 – 108 UTAH · DAL 28% → 55% +27DAL 28% → 55%+27 pts
- Q41:18Jordan Clarkson makes driving layupDAL 110 – 110 UTAH · UTAH 23% → 46% +23UTAH 23% → 46%+23 pts
- Q436.1John Collins makes dunkDAL 110 – 113 UTAH · UTAH 65% → 91% +25UTAH 65% → 91%+25 pts
- Q427.1Klay Thompson makes 28-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 113 – 113 UTAH · DAL 6% → 52% +46DAL 6% → 52%+46 pts
- Q46.1John Collins makes 3-foot dunk (Jordan Clarkson assists)DAL 113 – 115 UTAH · UTAH 49% → 99% +50UTAH 49% → 99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -7.5
- ML DAL -300 / UTAH +250
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -5
- DAL 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- DAL: Elo 69.3%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- DAL -263
- UTAH +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 119.0 – 111.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1373 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −32 | −21 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +141 Elo | DAL 69.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 68.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 68.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 105.729th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 119.026th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.4 | Margin | −13.330th of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 103.330th of 30 |
| 13th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 116.428th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.4 | Pace | 102.37th of 30 |
| 21st of 301–3 | Road vs home | 0–530th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–6 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | — |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–1 UTAH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.