Minnesota Timberwolves at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints36
- Mike ConleyAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds11
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints60
- De'Aaron FoxAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds12
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game130–126
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime130–126
- OT2.0Joe Ingles enters the game for Nickeil Alexander-Walker130–126
- OT2.0Naz Reid enters the game for Rudy Gobert130–126
- OT2.0Timberwolves Full timeout130–126
- OT2.0Keon Ellis personal take foul130–126
- OT3.0Mike Conley defensive rebound130–126
- OT6.0Domantas Sabonis misses 25-foot three point jumper130–126
- OT14.1(00:14.3) [Timberwolves] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)130–126
- OT14.1Anthony Edwards makes 21-foot step back jumpshot130–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:21Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 26-foot three pointer (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 109 – 109 SAC · MIN 28% → 51% +22MIN 28% → 51%+22 pts
- Q450.0Anthony Edwards makes driving layupMIN 114 – 113 SAC · MIN 35% → 66% +31MIN 35% → 66%+31 pts
- Q438.1De'Aaron Fox makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotMIN 115 – 115 SAC · SAC 18% → 50% +32SAC 18% → 50%+32 pts
- OT1:15De'Aaron Fox makes 27-foot three pointerMIN 126 – 126 SAC · SAC 16% → 49% +33SAC 16% → 49%+33 pts
- OT57.1Julius Randle makes 5-foot two point shotMIN 128 – 126 SAC · MIN 50% → 77% +27MIN 50% → 77%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -1.5
- ML MIN -125 / SAC +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -0.5
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- SAC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 111.5 – 110.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | −9 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +14 Elo | SAC 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 51.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30112.0 | Points scored | 116.58th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 112.514th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.7 | Margin | +4.08th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 113.39th of 30 |
| 8th of 30108.9 | Defense rating | 109.410th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.5 | Pace | 100.913th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 17th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 3–212th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–8 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–2 SAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.