Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Naz ReidPoints28
- Mike ConleyAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds8
Trail Blazers- Jerami GrantPoints21
- Jerami GrantAssists8
- Robert Williams IIIRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–122
- Q40.0Timberwolves offensive team rebound108–122
- Q40.0Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses driving layup108–122
- Q44.0Jerami Grant makes free throw 2 of 2108–122
- Q44.0Jerami Grant makes free throw 1 of 2108–121
- Q44.0Julius Randle personal foul108–120
- Q44.0(00:04.2) [Trail Blazers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Trail Blazers] retain their timeout108–120
- Q44.0Timberwolves Full timeout108–120
- Q46.2Julius Randle makes dunk (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)108–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:17Shaedon Sharpe makes 22-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)MIN 55 – 65 POR · POR 55% → 64% +9POR 55% → 64%+9 pts
- Q39:44Scoot Henderson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)MIN 57 – 68 POR · POR 59% → 67% +9POR 59% → 67%+9 pts
- Q38:37Mike Conley makes 26-foot three pointer (Rudy Gobert assists)MIN 62 – 70 POR · MIN 31% → 40% +9MIN 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q36:56Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 67 – 74 POR · MIN 32% → 42% +9MIN 32% → 42%+9 pts
- Q36:37Toumani Camara makes 23-foot three point jumperMIN 67 – 77 POR · POR 59% → 68% +9POR 59% → 68%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -8.5
- ML MIN -300 / POR +250
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -7.5
- MIN 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 77.1%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -263
- POR +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 114.5 – 106.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1378 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | −47 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Deandre Ayton −15 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +211 Elo | MIN 77.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 78.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 78.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 105.530th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.4 | Points allowed | 116.622nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.4 | Margin | −11.128th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 103.129th of 30 |
| 7th of 30108.1 | Defense rating | 113.923rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.3 | Pace | 102.46th of 30 |
| 11th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 1–427th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−47 Elo- Deandre Ayton finger injury−15 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–6 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | — |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–0 POR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.