Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints24
- Anthony EdwardsAssists4
- Julius RandleRebounds10
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints33
- Dalano BantonAssists5
- Donovan ClinganRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–106
- Q413.2Julius Randle makes driving dunk (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)98–106
- Q416.1Timberwolves Full timeout96–106
- Q416.1Dalano Banton makes free throw 1 of 196–106
- Q416.1Rudy Gobert shooting foul96–105
- Q416.1Dalano Banton makes driving layup96–105
- Q434.1Rudy Gobert lost ball turnover (Dalano Banton steals)96–103
- Q436.2Rudy Gobert offensive rebound96–103
- Q438.1Naz Reid misses 23-foot three point jumper96–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:16Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)MIN 78 – 81 POR · POR 35% → 48% +13POR 35% → 48%+13 pts
- Q45:54Naz Reid makes 30-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 83 – 89 POR · MIN 15% → 27% +13MIN 15% → 27%+13 pts
- Q44:05Julius Randle makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)MIN 86 – 91 POR · MIN 12% → 26% +14MIN 12% → 26%+14 pts
- Q43:47Jerami Grant makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dalano Banton assists)MIN 86 – 94 POR · POR 76% → 89% +14POR 76% → 89%+14 pts
- Q41:38Shaedon Sharpe makes 28-foot three pointerMIN 92 – 99 POR · POR 84% → 97% +13POR 84% → 97%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -10.5
- ML MIN -500 / POR +375
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -6
- MIN 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 72.6%, market 79.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -396
- POR +396 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 115.5 – 105.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1402 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | POR and MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −10 | −61 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +169 Elo | MIN 72.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 75.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 75.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 79.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30113.3 | Points scored | 106.927th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 115.922nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.6 | Margin | −9.027th of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 104.629th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 113.419th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.3 | Pace | 102.28th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 13th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 2–424th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–7 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | — |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–1 POR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.