Atlanta Hawks at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints29
- Trae YoungAssists8
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds11
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints32
- Scoot HendersonAssists10
- Robert Williams IIIRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–114
- Q41.1Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 2 of 2110–114
- Q41.1Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 1 of 2110–113
- Q41.1Trae Young personal take foul110–112
- Q41.1Trae Young bad pass (Shaedon Sharpe steals)110–112
- Q49.2Trae Young enters the game for Clint Capela110–112
- Q49.2Hawks Full timeout110–112
- Q49.2Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound110–112
- Q411.1Clint Capela enters the game for Trae Young110–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:59Trae Young makes 29-foot three point jumper (Vit Krejci assists)ATL 103 – 101 POR · ATL 46% → 67% +21ATL 46% → 67%+21 pts
- Q42:27Jerami Grant makes driving layup (Scoot Henderson assists)ATL 104 – 103 POR · POR 16% → 38% +22POR 16% → 38%+22 pts
- Q41:30Trae Young makes free throw 3 of 3ATL 108 – 105 POR · ATL 64% → 83% +19ATL 64% → 83%+19 pts
- Q41:03Shaedon Sharpe makes 31-foot three point step back jumpshot (Scoot Henderson assists)ATL 108 – 109 POR · POR 23% → 62% +39POR 23% → 62%+39 pts
- Q415.0Trae Young makes 2-foot layup (Onyeka Okongwu assists)ATL 110 – 111 POR · ATL 2% → 24% +23ATL 2% → 24%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -4.5
- ML ATL -180 / POR +150
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -0.5
- ATL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 52.8%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -161
- POR +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 118.0 – 113.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | −27 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Deandre Ayton −15 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +20 Elo | ATL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 106.827th of 30 |
| 28th of 30120.8 | Points allowed | 114.521st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.7 | Margin | −7.726th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 104.529th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 112.015th of 30 |
| 4th of 30105.4 | Pace | 102.37th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 17th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 3–421st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−27 Elo- Deandre Ayton sprained right finger−15 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–8 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | — |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 11–2 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 1–1 POR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.