Atlanta Hawks at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- De'Andre HunterPoints24
- Trae YoungAssists19
- Clint CapelaRebounds14
Kings- Keon EllisPoints33
- De'Aaron FoxAssists7
- Trey LylesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–108
- Q40.1Dyson Daniels defensive rebound109–108
- Q42.1Dyson Daniels blocks De'Aaron Fox 's 14-foot two point shot109–108
- Q48.2Jordan McLaughlin defensive rebound109–108
- Q412.0De'Andre Hunter misses 23-foot three point jumper109–108
- Q426.1Hawks Full timeout109–108
- Q426.1Hawks offensive team rebound109–108
- Q429.0Dyson Daniels misses 22-foot three point jumper109–108
- Q449.1Keon Ellis makes free throw 2 of 2109–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:33De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot three pointerATL 96 – 99 SAC · SAC 53% → 71% +17SAC 53% → 71%+17 pts
- Q43:47De'Andre Hunter makes 8-foot pullup jump shot (Trae Young assists)ATL 102 – 101 SAC · ATL 40% → 55% +15ATL 40% → 55%+15 pts
- Q43:21De'Andre Hunter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Garrison Mathews assists)ATL 105 – 101 SAC · ATL 55% → 76% +21ATL 55% → 76%+21 pts
- Q42:10Clint Capela makes two point shotATL 108 – 104 SAC · ATL 67% → 82% +15ATL 67% → 82%+15 pts
- Q41:53De'Aaron Fox makes 11-foot two point shotATL 108 – 106 SAC · SAC 16% → 32% +16SAC 16% → 32%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -4.5
- ML ATL +140 / SAC -165
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -3
- SAC 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- SAC: Elo 62.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SAC -149
- ATL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 115.5 – 120.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −10 | −65 | ATL: Missing Jalen Johnson −13 · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +85 Elo | SAC 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 66.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 117.55th of 30 |
| 28th of 30120.4 | Points allowed | 114.120th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.7 | Margin | +3.410th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.6 | Offense rating | 114.37th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 111.014th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.4 | Pace | 100.414th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 17th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 4–316th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−10 Elo- Jalen Johnson left leg injury−13 Elo
Kings
−65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–9 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–3 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 0–3 SAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.