Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints27
- Russell WestbrookAssists14
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds11
Grizzlies- Santi AldamaPoints28
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists6
- Santi AldamaRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–110
- Q40.1Russell Westbrook makes 1-foot two point shot122–110
- Q44.1Santi Aldama out of bounds bad pass turnover120–110
- Q45.1Luke Kennard enters the game for Scotty Pippen Jr.120–110
- Q45.1Grizzlies Full timeout120–110
- Q45.1Christian Braun makes free throw 2 of 2120–110
- Q45.1Christian Braun makes free throw 1 of 2119–110
- Q45.1Jake LaRavia personal foul118–110
- Q47.1Christian Braun offensive rebound118–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:17Jamal Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)DEN 58 – 47 MEM · DEN 59% → 67% +8DEN 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q225.1Jamal Murray makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Christian Braun assists)DEN 68 – 57 MEM · DEN 61% → 69% +8DEN 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q49:49Russell Westbrook makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 97 – 86 MEM · DEN 77% → 86% +9DEN 77% → 86%+9 pts
- Q45:52Santi Aldama makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)DEN 107 – 99 MEM · MEM 7% → 15% +8MEM 7% → 15%+8 pts
- Q44:26Santi Aldama makes 12-foot driving floating jump shotDEN 109 – 101 MEM · MEM 3% → 11% +8MEM 3% → 11%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -5.5
- ML DEN +190 / MEM -230
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -5
- MEM 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- MEM: Elo 68.9%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- MEM -202
- DEN +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 109.0 – 114.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −142 | +36 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +138 Elo | MEM 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 64.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 119.73rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.5 | Points allowed | 112.014th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +7.76th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 113.28th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 105.94th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.1 | Pace | 105.82nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 17th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 5–27th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−142 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–8 | 9–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–4 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 4–1 MEM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.