Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Julian StrawtherPoints19
- Jamal MurrayAssists7
- Dario SaricRebounds10
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points20
- Desmond BaneAssists7
- Desmond BaneRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–105
- Q46.0John Konchar defensive rebound90–105
- Q49.1Hunter Tyson misses 23-foot three point jumper90–105
- Q423.2Colin Castleton enters the game for Desmond Bane90–105
- Q423.2Jay Huff enters the game for Brandon Clarke90–105
- Q423.2Yuki Kawamura enters the game for Jaren Jackson Jr.90–105
- Q423.2John Konchar enters the game for Luke Kennard90–105
- Q423.2shot clock turnover90–105
- Q447.0Zeke Nnaji bad pass (Scotty Pippen Jr. steals)90–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:12Scotty Pippen Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)DEN 2 – 3 MEM · MEM 63% → 69% +6MEM 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q110:06Peyton Watson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 5 – 3 MEM · DEN 32% → 37% +6DEN 32% → 37%+6 pts
- Q13:11Luke Kennard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)DEN 19 – 16 MEM · MEM 52% → 59% +7MEM 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q11:24Vince Williams Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)DEN 20 – 23 MEM · MEM 65% → 71% +6MEM 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q131.1Julian Strawther makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotDEN 25 – 26 MEM · DEN 27% → 33% +6DEN 27% → 33%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -5.5
- ML DEN +190 / MEM -230
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -3.5
- MEM 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- MEM: Elo 63.8%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- MEM -202
- DEN +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 111.5 – 117.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −142 | +38 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | MEM crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MEM +98 Elo | MEM 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30118.5 | Points scored | 120.84th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 113.719th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +7.25th of 30 |
| 6th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 113.69th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 106.95th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.2 | Pace | 106.42nd of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 7th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 4–210th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−142 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–7 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 2–7 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–3 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 4–0 MEM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.