Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Michael Porter Jr.Points24
- Jamal MurrayAssists8
- Dario SaricRebounds8
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints29
- Brandon IngramAssists7
- Yves MissiRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–101
- Q41.0Jamal Murray defensive rebound94–101
- Q41.0Javonte Green misses 23-foot three point jumper94–101
- Q416.0Jeremiah Robinson-Earl offensive rebound94–101
- Q418.0Trey Murphy III misses 27-foot three point jumper94–101
- Q442.0Brandon Ingram defensive rebound94–101
- Q445.1Jamal Murray misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot94–101
- Q456.1Javonte Green makes free throw 2 of 294–101
- Q456.1Javonte Green makes free throw 1 of 294–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:08Trey Murphy III makes 28-foot three point jumper (Brandon Boston Jr. assists)DEN 78 – 87 NO · NO 76% → 86% +10NO 76% → 86%+10 pts
- Q47:43Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotDEN 81 – 87 NO · DEN 13% → 23% +10DEN 13% → 23%+10 pts
- Q46:25Russell Westbrook makes 23-foot three pointerDEN 86 – 87 NO · DEN 30% → 46% +16DEN 30% → 46%+16 pts
- Q45:18Brandon Ingram makes 12-foot two point shot (Brandon Boston Jr. assists)DEN 86 – 89 NO · NO 54% → 67% +12NO 54% → 67%+12 pts
- Q44:42Javonte Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandon Boston Jr. assists)DEN 86 – 92 NO · NO 68% → 83% +15NO 68% → 83%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -2.5
- ML DEN -135 / NO +115
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1.5
- DEN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- DEN: Elo 55.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -124
- NO +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 110.0 – 107.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −147 | −117 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +38 Elo | DEN 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 55.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.9 | Points scored | 105.429th of 30 |
| 25th of 30118.0 | Points allowed | 115.722nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.9 | Margin | −10.328th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 106.225th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 116.529th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.0 | Pace | 99.224th of 30 |
| 5th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 2–424th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−147 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−117 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–6 | 2–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 2–6 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 1–6 |
| Overs–unders | 8–2 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 2–1 NO in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.