New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Brandon IngramPoints18
- Brandon IngramAssists6
- Yves MissiRebounds10
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints31
- Jalen WilliamsAssists7
- Jalen WilliamsRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game88–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter88–106
- Q40.0Pelicans offensive team rebound88–106
- Q40.0Jaylen Nowell misses 25-foot three point jumper88–106
- Q42.0Trey Jemison III offensive rebound88–106
- Q45.0Antonio Reeves misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot88–106
- Q420.0Adam Flagler makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ajay Mitchell assists)88–106
- Q435.1Jeremiah Robinson-Earl out of bounds lost ball turnover88–103
- Q437.0Jeremiah Robinson-Earl offensive rebound88–103
- Q439.1Antonio Reeves misses 23-foot three point jumper88–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:52Jalen Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)NO 18 – 9 OKC · OKC 68% → 74% +6OKC 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q15:08Jamal Cain makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)NO 23 – 13 OKC · NO 24% → 29% +6NO 24% → 29%+6 pts
- Q14:58Kenrich Williams makes 27-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)NO 23 – 16 OKC · OKC 70% → 76% +6OKC 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q14:23Aaron Wiggins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)NO 25 – 19 OKC · OKC 72% → 77% +5OKC 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q39:53Brandon Ingram makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandon Boston Jr. assists)NO 56 – 59 OKC · NO 10% → 15% +5NO 10% → 15%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -14.5
- ML NO +725 / OKC -1150
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -11
- OKC 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- OKC: Elo 85.4%, market 88.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -759
- NO +759 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 105.5 – 120.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1631 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −109 | −11 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +307 Elo | OKC 85.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 86.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 86.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 88.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.0 | Points scored | 117.46th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 105.22nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.5 | Margin | +12.21st of 30 |
| 24th of 30107.4 | Offense rating | 112.511th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.0 | Defense rating | 100.81st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.5 | Pace | 104.35th of 30 |
| 25th of 292–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 29 |
| 23rd of 301–4 | Road vs home | 5–14th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−109 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–9 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 6–4 |
| Underdog | 1–5 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–3 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 1–6 OKC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.