Philadelphia 76ers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints35
- Jared McCainAssists5
- Joel EmbiidRebounds11
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points25
- Desmond BaneAssists6
- Desmond BaneRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–117
- Q46.1Jaren Jackson Jr. defensive rebound111–117
- Q49.2Jared McCain misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot111–117
- Q416.0Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2111–117
- Q416.0Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2111–116
- Q416.0KJ Martin personal take foul111–115
- Q417.1Reggie Jackson personal take foul111–115
- Q423.1Joel Embiid out of bounds bad pass turnover111–115
- Q433.0Joel Embiid defensive rebound111–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:38Guerschon Yabusele makes 26-foot three point jumper (Caleb Martin assists)PHI 59 – 65 MEM · PHI 31% → 40% +9PHI 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q37:38Scotty Pippen Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)PHI 61 – 68 MEM · MEM 54% → 64% +9MEM 54% → 64%+9 pts
- Q36:44Guerschon Yabusele makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 64 – 68 MEM · PHI 36% → 45% +10PHI 36% → 45%+10 pts
- Q32:52Jared McCain makes 25-foot three point shot (Ricky Council IV assists)PHI 73 – 80 MEM · PHI 23% → 32% +9PHI 23% → 32%+9 pts
- Q32:13Santi Aldama makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)PHI 75 – 85 MEM · MEM 68% → 78% +9MEM 68% → 78%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -4.5
- ML PHI -195 / MEM +165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 50.4%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- PHI -175
- MEM +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 115.5 – 111.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +69 | +47 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +3 Elo | PHI 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30103.3 | Points scored | 119.14th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.3 | Points allowed | 112.716th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−9.0 | Margin | +6.46th of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.7 | Offense rating | 111.813th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 105.84th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.1 | Pace | 106.61st of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 25th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 5–315th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+69 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–10 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 3–7 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–7 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–2 MEM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.