Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Jared McCainPoints29
- Paul GeorgeAssists5
- Joel EmbiidRebounds8
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints31
- Franz WagnerAssists6
- Franz WagnerRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game86–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter86–98
- Q41.1Jett Howard makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cory Joseph assists)86–98
- Q48.0Jeff Dowtin Jr. makes free throw 2 of 286–95
- Q48.076ers offensive team rebound85–95
- Q48.0Jeff Dowtin Jr. misses free throw 1 of 285–95
- Q48.0Jett Howard personal foul85–95
- Q420.1Adem Bona defensive rebound85–95
- Q420.1Cole Anthony misses 29-foot three point jumper85–95
- Q428.0KJ Martin makes 3-foot dunk (Ricky Council IV assists)85–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:56Jared McCain makes 24-foot three point shot (Kyle Lowry assists)PHI 51 – 49 ORL · PHI 43% → 53% +9PHI 43% → 53%+9 pts
- Q35:07Paul George makes 25-foot three pointerPHI 65 – 58 ORL · PHI 61% → 70% +10PHI 61% → 70%+10 pts
- Q32:12Caleb Martin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)PHI 72 – 64 ORL · PHI 66% → 76% +10PHI 66% → 76%+10 pts
- Q411:29Moritz Wagner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)PHI 72 – 76 ORL · ORL 57% → 69% +12ORL 57% → 69%+12 pts
- Q43:56Franz Wagner makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 82 – 89 ORL · ORL 78% → 91% +13ORL 78% → 91%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -2.5
- ML PHI +115 / ORL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -2.5
- ORL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- ORL: Elo 59.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ORL -124
- PHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 103.0 – 105.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 208.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | −22 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +64 Elo | ORL 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 57.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30106.2 | Points scored | 107.426th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 103.71st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−8.0 | Margin | +3.78th of 30 |
| 26th of 30106.0 | Offense rating | 106.824th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 103.12nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.3 | Pace | 100.514th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 21st of 301–4 | Road vs home | 6–01st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–8 | 6–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–0 ORL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.