Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Jared McCainPoints20
- Paul GeorgeAssists5
- Joel EmbiidRebounds8
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints30
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists5
- Bam AdebayoRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–106
- Q414.1shot clock turnover89–106
- Q436.1Dru Smith defensive rebound89–106
- Q439.1Jeff Dowtin Jr. misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot89–106
- Q448.0Guerschon Yabusele defensive rebound89–106
- Q450.1Pelle Larsson misses two point shot89–106
- Q41:02Adem Bona enters the game for Joel Embiid89–106
- Q41:02Josh Richardson enters the game for Haywood Highsmith89–106
- Q41:02Pelle Larsson enters the game for Tyler Herro89–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:09Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three pointerPHI 56 – 56 MIA · MIA 45% → 54% +9MIA 45% → 54%+9 pts
- Q39:58Jared McCain makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kyle Lowry assists)PHI 60 – 56 MIA · PHI 50% → 59% +9PHI 50% → 59%+9 pts
- Q39:38Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)PHI 60 – 59 MIA · MIA 41% → 50% +9MIA 41% → 50%+9 pts
- Q38:26Jimmy Butler makes 23-foot three point jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)PHI 62 – 62 MIA · MIA 44% → 53% +10MIA 44% → 53%+10 pts
- Q37:15Duncan Robinson makes 27-foot three point shot (Tyler Herro assists)PHI 62 – 65 MIA · MIA 53% → 63% +10MIA 53% → 63%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -2.5
- ML PHI +115 / MIA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -1.5
- MIA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- MIA: Elo 55.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -124
- PHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 105.0 – 107.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +26 | +11 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +41 Elo | MIA 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30104.5 | Points scored | 111.319th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 111.813th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.3 | Margin | −0.515th of 30 |
| 28th of 30105.0 | Offense rating | 112.412th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 112.918th of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.9 | Pace | 98.126th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301–5 | Road vs home | 1–326th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–9 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–6 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–2 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.