San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints25
- Chris PaulAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds13
Suns- Devin BookerPoints29
- Devin BookerAssists5
- Devin BookerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–104
- Q46.0Julian Champagnie enters the game for Victor Wembanyama93–104
- Q46.0Suns Full timeout93–104
- Q46.0Suns Full timeout93–104
- Q412.0Bradley Beal defensive rebound93–104
- Q414.0Stephon Castle misses running pullup jump shot93–104
- Q418.1Jeremy Sochan defensive rebound93–104
- Q419.1Bradley Beal misses free throw 2 of 293–104
- Q419.1Ryan Dunn enters the game for Devin Booker93–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:18Royce O'Neale makes 24-foot three point jumper (Oso Ighodaro assists)SA 57 – 62 PHX · PHX 69% → 78% +8PHX 69% → 78%+8 pts
- Q35:31Tyus Jones makes 25-foot three pointer (Bradley Beal assists)SA 57 – 65 PHX · PHX 78% → 85% +7PHX 78% → 85%+7 pts
- Q33:51Stephon Castle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)SA 60 – 67 PHX · SA 11% → 17% +6SA 11% → 17%+6 pts
- Q30.0Julian Champagnie makes 5-foot layup (Victor Wembanyama assists)SA 71 – 75 PHX · SA 18% → 24% +6SA 18% → 24%+6 pts
- Q411:47Mason Plumlee makes 2-foot alley oop dunk shot (Monte Morris assists)SA 71 – 77 PHX · PHX 76% → 82% +6PHX 76% → 82%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -6.5
- ML SA +230 / PHX -280
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -2
- PHX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.0 pts
- PHX: Elo 57.9%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- PHX -243
- SA +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 111.0 – 117.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +36 | −20 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +55 Elo | PHX 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 69.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 68.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30111.1 | Points scored | 113.216th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.8 | Points allowed | 113.918th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.717th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 113.48th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 114.123rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.0 | Pace | 98.826th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 20th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 7–414th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–9 | 7–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 7–7 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 10–10 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 3–1 PHX in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.