San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints34
- Victor WembanyamaAssists11
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds14
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints28
- De'Aaron FoxAssists9
- Domantas SabonisRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–125
- Q40.0(00:00) [Spurs] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)127–125
- Q40.0Domantas Sabonis makes 25-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)127–125
- Q45.1Chris Paul makes free throw 2 of 2127–122
- Q45.1Chris Paul makes free throw 1 of 2126–122
- Q45.1Keegan Murray personal foul125–122
- Q46.1Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound125–122
- Q49.1Keldon Johnson misses free throw 2 of 2125–122
- Q49.1Stephon Castle enters the game for Harrison Barnes125–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:22DeMar DeRozan makes 11-foot two point shot (Malik Monk assists)SA 113 – 113 SAC · SAC 42% → 56% +14SAC 42% → 56%+14 pts
- Q43:56Victor Wembanyama makes 7-foot two point shot (Devin Vassell assists)SA 115 – 113 SAC · SA 45% → 59% +14SA 45% → 59%+14 pts
- Q42:49Devin Vassell makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Victor Wembanyama assists)SA 118 – 113 SAC · SA 62% → 83% +21SA 62% → 83%+21 pts
- Q41:35Devin Vassell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)SA 121 – 115 SAC · SA 78% → 95% +17SA 78% → 95%+17 pts
- Q442.0De'Aaron Fox makes 25-foot three point shot (Malik Monk assists)SA 121 – 119 SAC · SAC 2% → 21% +19SAC 2% → 21%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -6.5
- ML SA +200 / SAC -245
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -1
- SAC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.0 pts
- SAC: Elo 53.1%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- SAC -213
- SA +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 110.5 – 117.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +49 | +25 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +21 Elo | SAC 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 70.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 69.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.3 | Points scored | 113.714th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 113.318th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.415th of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 111.715th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 111.415th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.0 | Pace | 100.216th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 21st of 302–5 | Road vs home | 4–624th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–9 | 8–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 1–3 SAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.