Sacramento Kings at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints29
- De'Aaron FoxAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds15
Clippers- James HardenPoints22
- James HardenAssists9
- Ivica ZubacRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game88–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter88–104
- Q42.1James Harden defensive rebound88–104
- Q42.1Domantas Sabonis misses 27-foot three point jumper88–104
- Q414.1Derrick Jones Jr. makes 2-foot two point shot (James Harden assists)88–104
- Q421.0Ivica Zubac defensive rebound88–102
- Q425.0De'Aaron Fox misses 29-foot three point jumper88–102
- Q426.0Keegan Murray offensive rebound88–102
- Q430.1DeMar DeRozan misses 25-foot three point jumper88–102
- Q431.1Keegan Murray offensive rebound88–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:23Amir Coffey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ivica Zubac assists)SAC 8 – 12 LAC · LAC 43% → 49% +7LAC 43% → 49%+7 pts
- Q37:31De'Aaron Fox makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotSAC 46 – 56 LAC · SAC 18% → 26% +7SAC 18% → 26%+7 pts
- Q36:15Domantas Sabonis makes 27-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SAC 51 – 58 LAC · SAC 25% → 33% +9SAC 25% → 33%+9 pts
- Q35:52James Harden makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotSAC 51 – 61 LAC · LAC 67% → 76% +9LAC 67% → 76%+9 pts
- Q34:31Mo Bamba makes 22-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)SAC 55 – 68 LAC · LAC 77% → 84% +7LAC 77% → 84%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -4.5
- ML SAC -170 / LAC +140
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -0.5
- SAC 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.2 pts
- SAC: Elo 47.9%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- SAC -151
- LAC +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 111.5 – 107.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | −61 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +14 Elo | LAC 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 52.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 108.925th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 108.14th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.1 | Margin | +0.815th of 30 |
| 7th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 109.420th of 30 |
| 13th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 108.76th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.4 | Pace | 98.724th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 5th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 6–418th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–8 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 5–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–3 LAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.