Orlando Magic at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Anthony BlackPoints17
- Anthony BlackAssists8
- Franz WagnerRebounds6
Clippers- James HardenPoints24
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists6
- Ivica ZubacRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–104
- Q40.1shot clock turnover93–104
- Q424.1Jett Howard makes 21-foot running pullup jump shot93–104
- Q425.2Jett Howard defensive rebound91–104
- Q430.0Kobe Brown misses two point shot91–104
- Q431.0Kobe Brown offensive rebound91–104
- Q435.0Amir Coffey misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot91–104
- Q452.0Clippers defensive team rebound91–104
- Q455.1Jett Howard misses 23-foot three point step back jumpshot91–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:18James Harden makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jordan Miller assists)ORL 38 – 41 LAC · LAC 45% → 53% +8LAC 45% → 53%+8 pts
- Q24:36James Harden makes 30-foot three pointerORL 42 – 44 LAC · LAC 43% → 51% +8LAC 43% → 51%+8 pts
- Q23:52Amir Coffey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)ORL 42 – 47 LAC · LAC 51% → 59% +8LAC 51% → 59%+8 pts
- Q22:05Tristan da Silva makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)ORL 50 – 50 LAC · ORL 46% → 55% +8ORL 46% → 55%+8 pts
- Q36:29Derrick Jones Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)ORL 64 – 73 LAC · LAC 66% → 74% +9LAC 66% → 74%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -2.5
- ML ORL -140 / LAC +120
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -0.5
- ORL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- ORL: Elo 53.0%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- ORL -128
- LAC +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 104.0 – 101.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 205.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | −68 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +21 Elo | ORL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 53.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30106.9 | Points scored | 109.223rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.2 | Points allowed | 109.14th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.7 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 25th of 30107.6 | Offense rating | 109.518th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30102.9 | Defense rating | 109.47th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.3 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 20th of 302–6 | Road vs home | 5–419th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−68 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–7 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–2 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 1–5 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 0–2 LAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.