Orlando Magic at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints32
- Anthony BlackAssists9
- Goga BitadzeRebounds10
Suns- Tyus JonesPoints18
- Tyus JonesAssists8
- Mason PlumleeRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–99
- Q41.1Anthony Black makes free throw 2 of 2109–99
- Q41.1Anthony Black makes free throw 1 of 2108–99
- Q41.1Ryan Dunn personal foul107–99
- Q416.0Tyus Jones makes two point shot (Josh Okogie assists)107–99
- Q420.0Franz Wagner bad pass (Josh Okogie steals)107–97
- Q443.1Josh Okogie makes driving layup (Tyus Jones assists)107–97
- Q454.0Franz Wagner makes 4-foot two point shot (Anthony Black assists)107–95
- Q41:05Magic Full timeout105–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:25Tyus Jones makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 9 – 9 PHX · PHX 34% → 40% +6PHX 34% → 40%+6 pts
- Q17:45Tyus Jones makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Mason Plumlee assists)ORL 11 – 12 PHX · PHX 36% → 42% +6PHX 36% → 42%+6 pts
- Q16:04Tyus Jones makes 22-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)ORL 14 – 15 PHX · PHX 36% → 42% +6PHX 36% → 42%+6 pts
- Q12:02Grayson Allen makes 26-foot three pointer (Mason Plumlee assists)ORL 22 – 22 PHX · PHX 34% → 40% +7PHX 34% → 40%+7 pts
- Q27:17Franz Wagner makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 39 – 31 PHX · ORL 71% → 77% +6ORL 71% → 77%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -4.5
- ML ORL -170 / PHX +145
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -3
- ORL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- ORL: Elo 61.4%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- ORL -154
- PHX +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 108.5 – 104.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −16 | −88 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +80 Elo | ORL 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 60.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.7 | Points scored | 112.317th of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.4 | Points allowed | 113.217th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.3 | Margin | −0.916th of 30 |
| 25th of 30106.7 | Offense rating | 112.014th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30102.4 | Defense rating | 112.920th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.9 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 26th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 5–14th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−88 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–7 | 5–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–2 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 1–5 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–8 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 1–1 PHX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.