Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Josh OkogiePoints15
- Devin BookerAssists4
- Josh OkogieRebounds9
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints28
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists4
- Luguentz DortRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game83–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter83–99
- Q46.0Bol Bol bad pass (Dillon Jones steals)83–99
- Q416.0Dillon Jones makes free throw 2 of 283–99
- Q416.0Dillon Jones makes free throw 1 of 283–98
- Q416.0Bol Bol personal foul83–97
- Q432.1Adam Flagler defensive rebound83–97
- Q435.1Bol Bol misses 26-foot three point jumper83–97
- Q452.0Damion Lee defensive rebound83–97
- Q454.1Adam Flagler misses 25-foot three point jumper83–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:54Cason Wallace makes 22-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)PHX 4 – 3 OKC · OKC 65% → 71% +6OKC 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q19:23Luguentz Dort makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)PHX 4 – 6 OKC · OKC 70% → 76% +5OKC 70% → 76%+5 pts
- Q17:52Isaiah Joe makes 26-foot three point shot (Jalen Williams assists)PHX 5 – 9 OKC · OKC 74% → 79% +5OKC 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q17:14Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotPHX 7 – 12 OKC · OKC 75% → 80% +5OKC 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q16:19Josh Okogie makes 22-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)PHX 10 – 14 OKC · PHX 17% → 21% +5PHX 17% → 21%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -7.5
- ML PHX +250 / OKC -325
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -7.5
- OKC 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- OKC: Elo 76.7%, market 72.8%
- Fair odds
- OKC -268
- PHX +268 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 110.5 – 118.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1634 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −73 | −8 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | PHX crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +207 Elo | OKC 76.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 79.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 79.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 72.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 116.49th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 103.82nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +12.71st of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 112.411th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 100.21st of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.2 | Pace | 103.55th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 5th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 6–14th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–8 | 8–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 7–4 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–4 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 0–3 OKC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.