Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints44
- Tyus JonesAssists11
- Mason PlumleeRebounds8
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints35
- Julius RandleAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–120
- Q40.0(00:00) [Suns] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)117–120
- Q40.1Julius Randle makes 25-foot three pointer (Joe Ingles assists)117–120
- Q42.1Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Jusuf Nurkic117–117
- Q42.1Josh Okogie enters the game for Tyus Jones117–117
- Q42.1Ryan Dunn enters the game for Grayson Allen117–117
- Q42.1Julius Randle enters the game for Rudy Gobert117–117
- Q42.1Joe Ingles enters the game for Nickeil Alexander-Walker117–117
- Q42.1Donte DiVincenzo enters the game for Jaden McDaniels117–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:11Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)PHX 114 – 111 MIN · MIN 9% → 27% +18MIN 9% → 27%+18 pts
- Q41:39Jaden McDaniels makes driving dunkPHX 114 – 113 MIN · MIN 23% → 43% +20MIN 23% → 43%+20 pts
- Q41:09Anthony Edwards makes 12-foot two point shotPHX 114 – 115 MIN · MIN 40% → 66% +26MIN 40% → 66%+26 pts
- Q456.0Grayson Allen makes 22-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 117 – 115 MIN · PHX 33% → 75% +42PHX 33% → 75%+42 pts
- Q40.1Julius Randle makes 25-foot three pointer (Joe Ingles assists)PHX 117 – 120 MIN · MIN 50% → 100% +50MIN 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -7.5
- ML PHX +240 / MIN -290
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -3
- MIN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 62.2%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -253
- PHX +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 105.5 – 113.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −81 | −8 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | MIN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +87 Elo | MIN 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 63.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30111.9 | Points scored | 113.414th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 110.67th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +2.811th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 112.210th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 109.59th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.0 | Pace | 100.217th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 6th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 4–29th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−81 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–9 | 5–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 3–4 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.
- Apr 28MIN 122 @ PHX 116PlayoffsPicked MIN 58%Hit
- Apr 26MIN 126 @ PHX 109PlayoffsPicked MIN 55%Hit
- Apr 23PHX 93 @ MIN 105PlayoffsPicked MIN 62%Hit
- Apr 20PHX 95 @ MIN 120PlayoffsPicked MIN 61%Hit
- Apr 14PHX 125 @ MIN 106Picked MIN 65%Miss
- Apr 5MIN 87 @ PHX 97Picked MIN 51%Miss
- Nov 15MIN 115 @ PHX 133Picked PHX 51%Hit