Sacramento Kings at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Malik MonkPoints29
- Domantas SabonisAssists11
- Domantas SabonisRebounds14
Trail Blazers- Deandre AytonPoints26
- Anfernee SimonsAssists9
- Deandre AytonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–115
- Q44.1Malik Monk makes 27-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)106–115
- Q46.1Keegan Murray offensive rebound103–115
- Q410.2De'Aaron Fox misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot103–115
- Q416.1Shaedon Sharpe makes driving dunk (Toumani Camara assists)103–115
- Q425.1Malik Monk makes 23-foot three point shot (Domantas Sabonis assists)103–113
- Q430.2De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound100–113
- Q433.1Deandre Ayton misses 23-foot three point jumper100–113
- Q455.0Deandre Ayton defensive rebound100–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:51Dalano Banton makes 28-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)SAC 41 – 47 POR · POR 42% → 50% +8POR 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q234.1Jae Crowder makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malik Monk assists)SAC 50 – 54 POR · SAC 45% → 53% +9SAC 45% → 53%+9 pts
- Q311:37Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotSAC 50 – 57 POR · POR 47% → 56% +9POR 47% → 56%+9 pts
- Q310:23Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)SAC 53 – 60 POR · POR 48% → 57% +9POR 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q39:53Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)SAC 53 – 63 POR · POR 57% → 66% +9POR 57% → 66%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -7.5
- ML SAC -275 / POR +220
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -1.5
- SAC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.5 pts
- SAC: Elo 55.6%, market 70.1%
- Fair odds
- SAC -235
- POR +235 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 116.5 – 109.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | −12 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Donovan Clingan −12, Jerami Grant −3 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +39 Elo | SAC 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 70.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 69.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 70.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.1 | Points scored | 105.628th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 114.019th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −8.427th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 103.329th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 111.616th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.2 | Pace | 102.18th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 7th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 4–418th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−12 Elo- Donovan Clingan left knee sprain−12 Elo
- Jerami Grant left knee sprain−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–11 | 11–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | — |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 3–1 POR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.