Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints25
- Dalano BantonAssists5
- Donovan ClinganRebounds19
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints22
- Alperen SengunAssists5
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–98
- Q44.1Tari Eason enters the game for Fred VanVleet104–98
- Q44.1Fred VanVleet ejected104–98
- Q44.1Anfernee Simons makes technical free throw104–98
- Q44.1Fred VanVleet technical foul103–98
- Q44.1Fred VanVleet turnover103–98
- Q44.1Fred VanVleet offensive foul103–98
- Q44.1Rockets Full timeout103–98
- Q44.1Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 2 of 2103–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:14Amen Thompson makes 2-foot layup (Alperen Sengun assists)POR 94 – 96 HOU · HOU 57% → 79% +23HOU 57% → 79%+23 pts
- Q41:03Anfernee Simons makes driving layupPOR 96 – 96 HOU · POR 20% → 44% +24POR 20% → 44%+24 pts
- Q428.1Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 99 – 96 HOU · POR 46% → 93% +47POR 46% → 93%+47 pts
- Q421.0Alperen Sengun makes 4-foot two point shot (Fred VanVleet assists)POR 99 – 98 HOU · HOU 4% → 30% +26HOU 4% → 30%+26 pts
- Q416.1Deni Avdija makes free throw 1 of 2POR 100 – 98 HOU · POR 73% → 91% +17POR 73% → 91%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -12.5
- ML POR +550 / HOU -800
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -10
- HOU 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 83.2%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -578
- POR +578 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 107.0 – 119.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1412 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | HOU and POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −25 | +54 | POR: Missing Deandre Ayton −16 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +278 Elo | HOU 83.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 84.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 84.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 85.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30105.6 | Points scored | 114.712th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 105.13rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.4 | Margin | +9.65th of 30 |
| 30th of 30103.0 | Offense rating | 110.917th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 101.62nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.5 | Pace | 102.96th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 20th of 302–6 | Road vs home | 8–25th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−25 Elo- Deandre Ayton right finger−16 Elo
Rockets
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 9–7 | 12–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | — | 9–4 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–4 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.