Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints21
- Scoot HendersonAssists8
- Toumani CamaraRebounds9
Thunder- Jalen WilliamsPoints30
- Jalen WilliamsAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–109
- Q42.1Jalen Williams defensive rebound99–109
- Q44.1Isaiah Hartenstein blocks Deni Avdija's two point shot99–109
- Q47.2Deni Avdija offensive rebound99–109
- Q48.2Jerami Grant misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot99–109
- Q410.0Jerami Grant offensive rebound99–109
- Q412.1Dalano Banton misses 26-foot three point jumper99–109
- Q417.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 299–109
- Q417.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 299–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q334.1Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three pointerPOR 69 – 68 OKC · POR 23% → 33% +10POR 23% → 33%+10 pts
- Q48:56Shaedon Sharpe makes 23-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 79 – 79 OKC · POR 21% → 32% +12POR 21% → 32%+12 pts
- Q46:22Toumani Camara makes 25-foot three point jumper (Robert Williams III assists)POR 82 – 85 OKC · POR 11% → 21% +10POR 11% → 21%+10 pts
- Q45:22Toumani Camara makes tip shotPOR 86 – 87 OKC · POR 21% → 31% +10POR 21% → 31%+10 pts
- Q45:09Jalen Williams makes 13-foot pullup jump shotPOR 86 – 89 OKC · OKC 69% → 79% +10OKC 69% → 79%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -13.5
- ML POR +550 / OKC -900
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -8
- OKC 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- OKC: Elo 77.9%, market 85.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -585
- POR +585 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 104.5 – 118.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1619 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −21 | −17 | POR: Missing Deandre Ayton −17, Anfernee Simons −7 · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | POR crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +218 Elo | OKC 77.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 82.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 82.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 85.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.4 | Points scored | 114.612th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 103.92nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.9 | Margin | +10.72nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30104.8 | Offense rating | 111.615th of 30 |
| 17th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 101.21st of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.4 | Pace | 102.66th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 18th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 7–25th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−21 Elo- Deandre Ayton did not dress - injury/illness−17 Elo
- Anfernee Simons did not dress - injury/illness−7 Elo
Thunder
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 8–6 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 7–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 0–5 OKC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.