Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- P.J. WashingtonPoints27
- Kyrie IrvingAssists6
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds17
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints36
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists8
- Jalen WilliamsRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–119
- Q40.0Thunder offensive team rebound121–119
- Q40.1Luguentz Dort misses 26-foot three point jumper121–119
- Q42.1Luguentz Dort offensive rebound121–119
- Q44.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses free throw 2 of 2121–119
- Q44.1Dereck Lively II enters the game for Quentin Grimes121–119
- Q44.1Daniel Gafford enters the game for Spencer Dinwiddie121–119
- Q44.1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2121–119
- Q44.1Spencer Dinwiddie personal foul121–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:04Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 14-foot step back jumpshotDAL 54 – 50 OKC · OKC 46% → 57% +11OKC 46% → 57%+11 pts
- Q36:55Kyrie Irving makes free throw 1 of 2DAL 79 – 73 OKC · DAL 45% → 55% +10DAL 45% → 55%+10 pts
- Q34:46Dillon Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)DAL 86 – 80 OKC · OKC 33% → 43% +10OKC 33% → 43%+10 pts
- Q410:33Spencer Dinwiddie makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotDAL 100 – 92 OKC · DAL 61% → 73% +12DAL 61% → 73%+12 pts
- Q43:14Jalen Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luguentz Dort assists)DAL 114 – 109 OKC · OKC 7% → 20% +12OKC 7% → 20%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -7.5
- ML DAL +240 / OKC -300
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -8
- OKC 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.5 pts
- OKC: Elo 78.4%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- OKC -255
- DAL +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 109.5 – 117.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1572 | 1640 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −92 | −12 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +223 Elo | OKC 78.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 78.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 78.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 115.111th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 102.21st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.0 | Margin | +12.91st of 30 |
| 7th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 111.815th of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 99.21st of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.3 | Pace | 102.95th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301–4 | Road vs home | 7–14th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−92 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–7 | 9–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 8–4 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–8 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 5–5 OKC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.
- May 18OKC 116 @ DAL 117PlayoffsPicked DAL 51%Hit
- May 15DAL 104 @ OKC 92PlayoffsPicked OKC 62%Miss
- May 13OKC 100 @ DAL 96PlayoffsPicked DAL 50%Miss
- May 11OKC 101 @ DAL 105PlayoffsPicked OKC 51%Miss
- May 9DAL 119 @ OKC 110PlayoffsPicked OKC 64%Miss
- May 7DAL 95 @ OKC 117PlayoffsPicked OKC 60%Hit
- Apr 14DAL 86 @ OKC 135Picked OKC 79%Hit
- Mar 14DAL 119 @ OKC 126Picked OKC 73%Hit