San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Zach CollinsPoints20
- Tre JonesAssists4
- Zach CollinsRebounds6
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints22
- Kyrie IrvingAssists6
- Kyrie IrvingRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game93–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter93–110
- Q410.1shot clock turnover93–110
- Q433.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper defensive rebound93–110
- Q436.0Sidy Cissoko misses 17-foot step back jumpshot93–110
- Q450.0Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes dunk93–110
- Q450.0Olivier-Maxence Prosper offensive rebound93–108
- Q451.0Brandon Williams misses driving layup93–108
- Q41:03Malaki Branham makes 11-foot two point shot93–108
- Q41:16Markieff Morris makes 15-foot two point shot91–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:47Julian Champagnie makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)SA 33 – 25 DAL · SA 28% → 34% +6SA 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q210:32Luka Doncic makes 30-foot three point jumperSA 33 – 28 DAL · DAL 65% → 72% +7DAL 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q27:52Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)SA 38 – 33 DAL · SA 23% → 30% +6SA 23% → 30%+6 pts
- Q23:26Harrison Barnes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 47 – 45 DAL · SA 19% → 26% +6SA 19% → 26%+6 pts
- Q22:01Luka Doncic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Daniel Gafford assists)SA 47 – 52 DAL · DAL 82% → 87% +5DAL 82% → 87%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -13.5
- ML SA +550 / DAL -800
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -6.5
- DAL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.8 pts
- DAL: Elo 73.4%, market 85.2%
- Fair odds
- DAL -578
- SA +578 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 108.0 – 121.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −18 | −10 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +176 Elo | DAL 73.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 78.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 77.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 85.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.2 | Points scored | 114.312th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 111.311th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +2.910th of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 114.27th of 30 |
| 12th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 111.313th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.6 | Pace | 100.217th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301–4 | Road vs home | 4–315th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–7 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–6 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 0–5 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.