Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints40
- LeBron JamesAssists12
- LeBron JamesRebounds16
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints28
- Chris PaulAssists11
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–115
- Q40.0Spurs offensive team rebound120–115
- Q40.0Devin Vassell misses 25-foot three point jumper120–115
- Q44.0Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound120–115
- Q47.0Devin Vassell misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot120–115
- Q411.0LeBron James makes free throw 2 of 2120–115
- Q411.0LeBron James makes free throw 1 of 2119–115
- Q411.0Chris Paul personal foul118–115
- Q411.0LeBron James defensive rebound118–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:44Anthony Davis makes 28-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)LAL 111 – 109 SA · LAL 44% → 66% +22LAL 44% → 66%+22 pts
- Q41:59Austin Reaves makes 27-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)LAL 114 – 113 SA · LAL 32% → 61% +30LAL 32% → 61%+30 pts
- Q41:44Stephon Castle makes driving layup (Chris Paul assists)LAL 114 – 115 SA · SA 38% → 60% +22SA 38% → 60%+22 pts
- Q41:31Anthony Davis makes 1-foot dunk (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 116 – 115 SA · LAL 40% → 63% +23LAL 40% → 63%+23 pts
- Q425.0LeBron James makes 2-foot layup (Anthony Davis assists)LAL 118 – 115 SA · LAL 72% → 95% +24LAL 72% → 95%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -2.5
- ML LAL -145 / SA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -1
- LAL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.1 pts
- LAL: Elo 46.4%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- LAL -130
- SA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 115.5 – 113.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | +31 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +25 Elo | SA 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 52.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 109.822nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 109.25th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.714th of 30 |
| 6th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 110.319th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 109.611th of 30 |
| 6th of 30102.6 | Pace | 99.623rd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 21st of 301–4 | Road vs home | 5–27th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–5 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–5 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–1 SA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.